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Mexican Growth Seen Dependent on Domestic Issues

Anthony Harrup - Dow Jones
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August 2, 2017

Americans Need Mexico, Here's Why (NowThis)

Private economists surveyed last month by the Bank of Mexico kept their expectations for economic growth this year at 2%, but put domestic matters such as politics and public security at the top of the list of things that could stymie the economy.

The survey, published Tuesday, shows growth estimates have picked up from the start of the year, when concerns about strained U.S.-Mexican trade and investment relations under the administration of President Donald Trump led business and consumer confidence to sink.

Foreign direct investment in Mexico has remained steady, and negotiations to update the 23-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement, due to start mid-August, are no longer expected to disrupt the trade on which Mexico relies heavily.

Potential obstacles to growth most mentioned in the central bank's July survey of 35 analysts were internal political uncertainty and problems with public security, followed by Mexico's low oil production and rising inflation. The level of concern averaged 5.3 on a scale of 1 to 7, where 7 indicates the most limitations to growth.

In January, the main problems were seen as international political instability, weakness in export demand and the global economy, and international financial instability. As concerns about the "Trump effect" fade, analysts are turning their sights to rising criminal violence in Mexico and next year's presidential election, in which opinion polls show leftist presidential hopeful Andrés Manuel López Obrador leading voter preferences.

Read the rest at Fox Business

Related: Mexico's Billionaires Concerned with Corruption, Head of Leading Business Group Says (Forbes)

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