Opinion Poll Finds Perceptions of Security Have Worsened for Average Mexicans Deborah Bonello - InSight Crime
go to original December 4, 2016

Murders are rising again in Mexico's Michoacán state as gangs battle for control of drug production and trafficking routes. (Al Jazeera English)

Perceptions of insecurity in Mexico have worsened year on year, and more people than ever since the start of the drug war think the government crackdown is making the country less secure.

The latest opinion poll by El Universal and pollster Buendia & Laredo will be unwelcome but predictable news for President Enrique Peña Nieto and his administration. Despite government efforts to control the message around Mexico's insecurity, the reality on the streets is making an impact on public opinion.

The findings by the latest poll were based on in-person interviews with 1,000 respondents. Although a tiny sample in a country of more than 122 million, the data provides valuable food for thought.

Sixty-nine percent of respondents to the survey published by El Universal said they think that violence related to organized crime has risen, compared to 58 percent in November 2015.

The evidence supports this conclusion. As of October, the total number of homicides in Mexico this year stood at 17,063, already more than the 17,034 registered during the whole of 2015 and the 15,653 in 2014, according to official government statistics. One think tank estimates that organized crime accounts for more than half of 2016's homicides.

Monthly homicide rates in Mexico in the latter half of this year have returned to the levels not seen since the presidency of Felipe Calderón, Peña Nieto's predecessor and the architect of the country's decade-long military crackdown. September 2016 was the most violent month since Peña Nieto took office, with 1,974 homicides registered.

In addition, 71 percent of respondents said that they think the government crackdown on organized crime is making the country less safe - the highest percentage of people expressing this opinion since the drug war began in 2006. During Calderón's administration, the biggest percentage of Mexicans who responded that way was 57 percent in 2011. Doubts about the effectiveness of the current government strategy are nothing new.

While the majority of respondents were against the legalization of weapons for civilians in Mexico - although illegal weapons are very easy to buy on the black market - a plurality of respondents (48 percent) said that they would feel much safer or significantly safer with a gun at home. Thirty percent of respondents were in favor of taking the law into their own hands if the government failed to punish criminals.

Related to that, the majority of Mexicans surveyed felt that the federal government is the most corrupt branch of government behind state and municipal administrations. Despite that fact, however, the case of the former Veracruz governor Javier Duarte topped the charts for examples of corruption people mentioned when prompted.

Read the rest at InSight Crime

Related: Risk Analysis Firm's Index Ranks Mexico as Third Most Dangerous Country (Mexico News Daily)

InSight Crime is a foundation dedicated to the study of the principal threat to national and citizen security in Latin America and the Caribbean: organized crime. We seek to deepen and inform the debate about organized crime in the Americas by providing the general public with regular reporting, analysis and investigation on the subject and on state efforts to combat it.

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